Daily Respiratory Research Analysis
Three studies stand out today: a massive U.S. target-trial emulation shows nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid) substantially reduces COVID-19 hospitalization and death, including among vaccinated and older adults; a Catalonia-wide infant cohort demonstrates strong real-world effectiveness of single-dose nirsevimab against RSV-related hospital and PICU admissions; and a mechanistic influenza study identifies early neutrophil recruitment and function as key determinants of viral control and lung inf
Summary
Three studies stand out today: a massive U.S. target-trial emulation shows nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid) substantially reduces COVID-19 hospitalization and death, including among vaccinated and older adults; a Catalonia-wide infant cohort demonstrates strong real-world effectiveness of single-dose nirsevimab against RSV-related hospital and PICU admissions; and a mechanistic influenza study identifies early neutrophil recruitment and function as key determinants of viral control and lung inflammation, with adoptive transfer restoring protection.
Research Themes
- Real-world effectiveness of COVID-19 antivirals
- Population-level RSV immunoprophylaxis in infants
- Neutrophil-mediated control of respiratory viral infections
Selected Articles
1. Deficient neutrophil responses early in influenza infection promote viral replication and pulmonary inflammation.
In a comparative murine model, early neutrophil recruitment and effector function (NETs, ROS) determined influenza control and survival. Adoptive transfer of competent neutrophils restored viral clearance and dampened inflammatory mediators, implicating early neutrophil competence as a key moderator of disease.
Impact: This mechanistic study pinpoints early neutrophil competence as causal in influenza outcomes and provides an actionable host-targeted concept for timing and modulation of innate responses.
Clinical Implications: Therapies enhancing early neutrophil recruitment/function or timing immunomodulation to avoid late neutrophil-driven injury could improve outcomes in severe influenza and possibly other respiratory viral infections.
Key Findings
- A self-resolving PR8 dose was lethal in A/J mice with higher viral loads, marked neutrophilia, and vascular leak vs. B6 mice.
- A/J neutrophils exhibited reduced NET release and ROS generation early after infection.
- Adoptive transfer of B6 neutrophils into A/J mice enhanced viral clearance and reduced CXCL1 and IL-6 dissemination; A/J neutrophils did not.
- B6 neutrophils showed greater in vitro viral killing capacity than A/J neutrophils.
Methodological Strengths
- Head-to-head comparison of genetically distinct mouse strains with differing outcomes
- Adoptive neutrophil transfer demonstrating causality for early neutrophil function in viral control
Limitations
- Mouse models may not fully recapitulate human influenza pathophysiology
- Specific molecular determinants of neutrophil functional differences were not identified
Future Directions: Define molecular regulators of early neutrophil competence, test timed host-directed therapies, and validate findings in human cohorts or ex vivo human systems.
Neutrophils play key protective roles in influenza infections, yet excessive neutrophilic inflammation is a hallmark of acute lung injury during severe infections. Phenotypic heterogeneity is increasingly recognized in neutrophil populations; however, how functional variation in neutrophils between individuals determine the diverse outcomes of influenza remains unclear. To examine immunologic responses that may drive varying outcomes in influenza, we infected C57BL/6 (B6) and A/J mice with mouse-adapted influenza A virus A/PR/8/34 H1N1. A self-resolving dose in B6 mice was lethal in A/J mice, which had increased viral load throughout infection accompanied by prominent bronchoalveolar neutrophilia and pulmonary vascular leakage preceding mortality. Notably, the B6 mice heavily recruited neutrophils to lungs early in infection while A/J mice failed to do so. Neutrophils from A/J mice additionally displayed reduced neutrophil extracellular trap (NET) release and reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation compared to B6 mice early in infection, suggesting the failure to control virus in A/J mice was a product of deficient neutrophil response. To determine if variation in neutrophils between strains governed viral control and inflammation, we adoptively transferred bone marrow neutrophils from B6 or A/J donors to A/J recipients early in infection and found that the transfer of B6 neutrophils enhanced viral clearance and abrogated the dissemination of CXCL1 and IL-6. The transfer of A/J neutrophils, however, failed to achieve either. Furthermore, B6 neutrophils were capable of greater levels of viral killing in vitro than their A/J counterparts. These results suggest that a key moderator of inflammation in influenza infection is the control of virus by neutrophils early in infection. Thus, host-specific differences in both the recruitment of these cells as well as interindividual variation in neutrophil ability to support viral clearance may in part dictate differing susceptibility to respiratory viral infections.
2. Effect of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid) on hospitalization among adults with COVID-19: An electronic health record-based target trial emulation from N3C.
In a target trial emulation of 703,647 U.S. patients during the Omicron era, Paxlovid reduced hospitalization by 39% and death by 61%, with larger absolute benefit in adults ≥65 years and effectiveness regardless of vaccination status. Notably, treatment disparities were observed across racial/ethnic and socially vulnerable groups.
Impact: The study provides robust, contemporary, real-world effectiveness estimates using advanced causal inference on a national scale, directly informing clinical and public health policy.
Clinical Implications: Paxlovid should be prioritized for older adults and high-risk patients regardless of vaccination, while addressing inequities in access to ensure broad benefit.
Key Findings
- Target trial emulation with clone-censor-weight on 703,647 EHR records estimated 39% lower hospitalization risk and 61% lower mortality with Paxlovid.
- Absolute risk reduction was greatest in adults ≥65 years; effectiveness observed in both vaccinated and unvaccinated.
- Significant disparities in Paxlovid treatment rates among Black, Hispanic/Latino patients and socially vulnerable communities.
Methodological Strengths
- Nationwide, multi-site dataset with large sample size (703,647) during Omicron era
- Rigorous target trial emulation using clone-censor-weight and IPCW to address time-related biases
Limitations
- Observational design may be affected by unmeasured confounding despite advanced adjustment
- EHR-based definitions and prescription capture may miss out-of-network treatments
Future Directions: Prospective pragmatic trials on access strategies, dosing/timing optimization in older adults, and interventions to mitigate treatment disparities.
BACKGROUND: Nirmatrelvir with ritonavir (Paxlovid) is indicated for patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) who are at risk for progression to severe disease due to the presence of one or more risk factors. Millions of treatment courses have been prescribed in the United States alone. Paxlovid was highly effective at preventing hospitalization and death in clinical trials. Several studies have found a protective association in real-world data, but they variously used less recent study periods, correlational methods, and small, local cohorts. Their estimates also varied widely. The real-world effectiveness of Paxlovid remains uncertain, and it is unknown whether its effect is homogeneous across demographic strata. This study leverages electronic health record data in the National COVID Cohort Collaborative's (N3C) repository to investigate disparities in Paxlovid treatment and to emulate a target trial assessing its effectiveness in reducing severe COVID-19 outcomes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This target trial emulation used a cohort of 703,647 patients with COVID-19 seen at 34 clinical sites across the United States between April 1, 2022 and August 28, 2023. Treatment was defined as receipt of a Paxlovid prescription within 5 days of the patient's COVID-19 index date (positive test or diagnosis). To emulate randomization, we used the clone-censor-weight technique with inverse probability of censoring weights to balance a set of covariates including sex, age, race and ethnicity, comorbidities, community well-being index (CWBI), prior healthcare utilization, month of COVID-19 index, and site of care provision. The primary outcome was hospitalization; death was a secondary outcome. We estimated that Paxlovid reduced the risk of hospitalization by 39% (95% confidence interval (CI) [36%, 41%]; p < 0.001), with an absolute risk reduction of 0.9 percentage points (95% CI [0.9, 1.0]; p < 0.001), and reduced the risk of death by 61% (95% CI [55%, 67%]; p < 0.001), with an absolute risk reduction of 0.2 percentage points (95% CI [0.1, 0.2]; p < 0.001). We also conducted stratified analyses by vaccination status and age group. Absolute risk reduction for hospitalization was similar among patients that were vaccinated and unvaccinate, but was much greater among patients aged 65+ years than among younger patients. We observed disparities in Paxlovid treatment, with lower rates among black and Hispanic or Latino patients, and within socially vulnerable communities. This study's main limitation is that it estimates causal effects using observational data and could be biased by unmeasured confounding. CONCLUSIONS: In this study of Paxlovid's real-world effectiveness, we observed that Paxlovid is effective at preventing hospitalization and death, including among vaccinated patients, and particularly among older patients. This remains true in the era of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron subvariants. However, disparities in Paxlovid treatment rates imply that the benefit of Paxlovid's effectiveness is not equitably distributed.
3. Effectiveness of Nirsevimab Immunoprophylaxis Against Respiratory Syncytial Virus-related Outcomes in Hospital Care Settings: A Seasonal Cohort Study of Infants in Catalonia, Spain.
In 15,341 infants <6 months in Catalonia, single-dose nirsevimab markedly reduced RSV bronchiolitis-related hospitalization (HR 0.26), PICU admission (HR 0.15), and emergency visits (HR 0.46), with similar benefits for all-cause bronchiolitis. Sensitivity analyses with matching supported robustness.
Impact: This provides high-quality real-world effectiveness data at regional scale for RSV immunoprophylaxis, directly informing roll-out decisions and healthcare resource planning.
Clinical Implications: Nirsevimab should be integrated into seasonal RSV prevention strategies for young infants to prevent hospital and PICU burden.
Key Findings
- Adjusted HRs for RSV bronchiolitis outcomes with nirsevimab: hospitalization 0.26, PICU 0.15, ED visits 0.46.
- All-cause bronchiolitis also reduced: hospitalization HR 0.45, PICU HR 0.23, ED visits HR 0.49.
- Sensitivity analyses using matching supported the effectiveness estimates.
Methodological Strengths
- Large population-based seasonal cohort (N=15,341) with Cox models and calendar time scale
- Sensitivity analyses including matching to address confounding
Limitations
- Retrospective observational design may be prone to residual confounding
- Effect estimates compared to a catch-up cohort may reflect temporal differences in RSV circulation
Future Directions: Evaluate duration of protection, cost-effectiveness across seasons, and equity in coverage; assess synergistic strategies with maternal vaccination.
BACKGROUND: In Catalonia, infants <6 months old were eligible to receive nirsevimab, a novel monoclonal antibody against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). We aimed to analyze nirsevimab's effectiveness in hospital-related outcomes of the seasonal cohort (born during the RSV epidemic from October to January 2024) and compared them with the catch-up cohort (born from April to September 2023). METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of all infants born between October 1, 2023, and January 21, 2024, according to their immunization with nirsevimab (immunized and nonimmunized). We followed individuals until the earliest of an outcome-hospital emergency visits, hospital admission or pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission due to RSV-associated or all-causes bronchiolitis-death or the end of the study. We used the Kaplan-Meier estimator and fitted Cox regression models using a calendar time scale to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence interval (CI). Sensitivity analysis was performed through matching. RESULTS: Among 15,341 infants, a dose of nirsevimab led to an adjusted HR for hospital admission, PICU admission and emergency visits due to RSV bronchiolitis of 0.26 (95% CI: 0.17-0.39), 0.15 (95% CI: 0.07-0.28) and 0.46 (95% CI: 0.23-0.90), respectively. For all-causes bronchiolitis, the former adjusted HRs were 0.45 (95% CI: 0.31-0.63), 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13-0.41) and 0.49 (95% CI: 0.35-0.68), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Nirsevimab was associated with reductions of 74% and 85% hospitalizations and PICU admissions regarding RSV-associated bronchiolitis, respectively. These percentages are slightly lower than those for the catch-up cohort. This information may help the implementation of RSV-immunization campaigns by public health authorities.