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Daily Report

Daily Respiratory Research Analysis

10/03/2025
3 papers selected
3 analyzed

Three impactful respiratory studies stood out today. Real-world test-negative analyses show strong effectiveness of nirsevimab against RSV hospital encounters in U.S. infants and superiority of cell-based over egg-based influenza vaccines in 2023–2024. A multinational cohort (ATLANTIS) identifies small airway dysfunction by impulse oscillometry as an independent risk biomarker for future exacerbations even in well-controlled asthma.

Summary

Three impactful respiratory studies stood out today. Real-world test-negative analyses show strong effectiveness of nirsevimab against RSV hospital encounters in U.S. infants and superiority of cell-based over egg-based influenza vaccines in 2023–2024. A multinational cohort (ATLANTIS) identifies small airway dysfunction by impulse oscillometry as an independent risk biomarker for future exacerbations even in well-controlled asthma.

Research Themes

  • RSV prophylaxis effectiveness in infants
  • Small airway dysfunction as risk biomarker in asthma
  • Superiority of cell-based influenza vaccines over egg-based

Selected Articles

1. Effectiveness of nirsevimab among infants in their first RSV season in the United States, October 2023-March 2024: a test-negative design analysis.

77Level IIICase-control
Lancet regional health. Americas · 2025PMID: 41040536

In a six-system, test-negative EHR analysis of U.S. infants in their first RSV season, nirsevimab was 77% effective against RSV-related ED encounters and 98% effective against RSV-related hospitalization. Protection estimates reflect a median 7–8 weeks since administration, underscoring the need to monitor durability over time.

Impact: This is the first large, multisystem real-world effectiveness evaluation of universal infant nirsevimab in the U.S., demonstrating strong protection against clinically meaningful outcomes. It directly informs immunization policy and hospital preparedness during RSV seasons.

Clinical Implications: Supports broad implementation of nirsevimab for infants entering their first RSV season, with expectation of substantial reductions in ED visits and hospitalizations. Systems should plan for timely administration and track effectiveness as time since dose increases.

Key Findings

  • Effectiveness against RSV-associated ED encounters: 77% (95% CI 69–83%)
  • Effectiveness against RSV-associated hospitalization: 98% (95% CI 95–99%)
  • Median time since dose at encounter: 52 days (ED) and 48 days (hospitalization)

Methodological Strengths

  • Test-negative design across six healthcare systems with adjustment for key confounders
  • Exclusion of infants with maternal RSV vaccination reduces exposure misclassification

Limitations

  • Short time since dose may overestimate near-term effectiveness; durability not fully assessed
  • Observational design with potential residual confounding and EHR misclassification

Future Directions: Prospective follow-up to quantify waning over the season, effectiveness in high-risk subgroups, and combined program impact with maternal vaccination.

BACKGROUND: In August 2023, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended nirsevimab, a long-acting monoclonal antibody, for all U.S. infants aged <8 months entering or born during their first respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) season. Our aim was to estimate nirsevimab effectiveness against RSV-associated emergency department (ED) encounters and hospitalisation among U.S. infants during the 2023-2024 RSV season. METHODS: We conducted a test-negative analysis using electronic health record (EHR) data from 6 healthcare systems, including ED encounters and hospitalizations with a diagnosis of RSV-like illness (RLI) during October 8, 2023-March 31, 2024, among infants aged <8 months as of October 1, 2023, or born during the study period. Nirsevimab effectiveness was estimated by comparing children who received nirsevimab with those who did not among RSV-positive and RSV-negative encounters, adjusting for age, race and ethnicity, sex, calendar day, and geographic region and excluding infants whose mother received RSV vaccination during pregnancy. FINDINGS: Among 5039 ED encounters with RLI among infants in their first RSV season, 2045 (41%) were RSV-positive and 446 (9%) received nirsevimab, with a median time since dose of 52 days (interquartile range [IQR]: 27-84 days). Among 1025 hospitalizations with RLI among infants in their first RSV season, 605 (59%) were RSV-positive and 95 (9%) received nirsevimab, with a median time since dose of 48 days (IQR: 24-82 days). Nirsevimab effectiveness was 77% (95% CI: 69%-83%) against RSV-associated ED encounters and 98% (95% CI: 95%-99%) against RSV-associated hospitalisation. INTERPRETATION: Nirsevimab was effective in preventing RSV-associated ED encounters and hospitalisation among infants in their first RSV season, with greatest protection against hospitalisation. However, these estimates reflect a short interval from nirsevimab administration to RLI onset. Since nirsevimab is a passive immunization and concentration is expected to wane over time, it is important to continue monitoring effectiveness to assess effectiveness with increased time since dose. FUNDING: This work was supported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (contracts 75D30121D12779 to Westat and 75D30123C18039 to Kaiser Foundation Hospitals).

2. Assessment of the role of small airway dysfunction in relation to exacerbation risk in patients with well controlled asthma (ATLANTIS): an observational study.

71.5Level IICohort
The Lancet. Respiratory medicine · 2025PMID: 41038213

Across nine countries, small airway dysfunction measured by impulse oscillometry was common in well-controlled asthma and independently predicted future exacerbations. Metrics such as elevated R5–R20 and AX or reduced X5 identified patients at higher risk despite good symptom control.

Impact: Establishes small airway dysfunction as a clinically actionable risk biomarker in ostensibly well-controlled asthma, supporting routine use of impulse oscillometry where available to refine risk stratification and management.

Clinical Implications: Consider incorporating impulse oscillometry to detect small airway dysfunction in well-controlled asthma to guide therapy optimization (e.g., extra-fine particle inhaled corticosteroids, targeting peripheral inflammation) and follow-up intensity.

Key Findings

  • Small airway dysfunction present in 26–36% of well-controlled asthma across IOS metrics
  • R5–R20-defined dysfunction independently associated with future exacerbation risk after multivariable adjustment
  • Findings consistent across multiple IOS parameters (R5–R20, AX, X5)

Methodological Strengths

  • Multinational, multi-setting cohort with standardized IOS definitions using Z-scores
  • Predefined well-controlled asthma subgroup and multivariable adjustment for key confounders

Limitations

  • Observational design cannot establish causality or treatment effect of targeting small airways
  • Generalizability depends on IOS availability and expertise; partial IOS data across metrics

Future Directions: Interventional trials testing strategies that target small airway inflammation in IOS-defined high-risk patients; implementation studies on integrating IOS into routine asthma care.

BACKGROUND: Recent surveys suggest that asthma remains inadequately controlled in more than 50% of adults with asthma despite guideline-based standard therapy. Small airways are often under-recognised as major sites of airway obstruction and inflammation. This might be related to lack of assessment with current tools such as impulse oscillometry, and thus under-treatment might explain inadequate control. Small airway dysfunction, which is common in adults with well controlled asthma, might represent an important biomarker of future risk of exacerbations. We aimed to investigate whether small airway dysfunction is present in patients with well controlled asthma and, if so, whether it is a risk factor for future exacerbations in this population. METHODS: The observational Assessment of Small Airways Involvement in Asthma (ATLANTIS) study included 773 extensively characterised patients with asthma aged 18-65 years from 29 primary and specialty clinics in nine countries from June 30, 2014, to March 3, 2017. Patients were required to be diagnosed with asthma at least 6 months before inclusion based on evidence of airway hyper-responsiveness, bronchodilator reversibility, or peak expiratory flow variability. Patients were required to have stable asthma, defined as no asthma exacerbations and regular asthma treatment at a consistent dose for 8 weeks before baseline visits. The current analysis included patients with well controlled asthma, defined as an Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ-6) score of less than 0·75 at baseline. Small airway dysfunction was defined, based on deviation from predicted values of impulse oscillometry parameters, as a Z score of more than 1·645 for R5-R20 (resistance at 5 Hz minus resistance at 20 Hz) and AX (area of reactance) and a Z score of less than -1·645 for X5 (reactance at 5 Hz), with additional analyses exploring severe small airway dysfunction (Z score of 3 or -3). ATLANTIS is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02123667. FINDINGS: Of 773 patients, ACQ-6 assessments were available for 772 patients. Among these patients, 384 (50%) were classified as having well controlled asthma, and small airway dysfunction was present in 108 (36% [95% CI 30-41]) of 304 patients with impulse oscillometry data available for R5-R20, 89 (34% [28-42]) of 261 patients with data for AX, and 79 (26% [21-31]) of 303 patients with data for X5. In the multivariable analysis, we found that R5-R20-defined small airway dysfunction was associated with increased risk of future exacerbations, independent of age, sex, smoking status, Global Initiative for Asthma steps 4-5, previous exacerbations, percentage of predicted FEV

3. Superior Effectiveness and Estimated Public Health Impact of Cell- Versus Egg-Based Influenza Vaccines in Children and Adults During the US 2023-2024 Season.

70Level IIICase-control
Infectious diseases and therapy · 2025PMID: 41042449

In a large test-negative study spanning the 2023–2024 U.S. season, cell-based QIVc outperformed egg-based QIVe with a relative vaccine effectiveness of 19.8% overall and consistent superiority in both pediatric and adult subgroups. Modeling suggests that replacing QIVe with QIVc could avert ~2.4 million symptomatic illnesses and thousands of healthcare encounters.

Impact: Provides robust, real-world evidence that addresses egg-adaptation limitations, with immediate implications for seasonal vaccine selection and procurement, including the first demonstration of superiority in children from 6 months.

Clinical Implications: Health systems and payers should consider preferential use of cell-based vaccines to improve population-level influenza prevention, especially in pediatric programs, while ensuring equitable access.

Key Findings

  • Relative vaccine effectiveness of QIVc vs QIVe: 19.8% overall (95% CI 15.7–23.8%)
  • Consistent superiority in children 6 months–17 years (rVE 19.6%) and adults 18–64 years (rVE 18.5%)
  • Modeled public health impact: ~2.38 million symptomatic illnesses, 1.1 million outpatient visits, 14,940 hospitalizations, and 574 deaths prevented if QIVc replaced QIVe

Methodological Strengths

  • Large linked real-world dataset with test-negative design and doubly robust logistic regression
  • Extensive subgroup and sensitivity analyses across care settings and influenza types

Limitations

  • Observational design with potential residual confounding and vaccine selection biases
  • Vaccine exposure and outcome ascertainment depend on routine data and testing behavior

Future Directions: Head-to-head evaluations across multiple seasons and age groups, cost-effectiveness analyses, and integration with variant-specific vaccine updates.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to assess the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of cell-based versus egg-based quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVc versus QIVe) in preventing test-confirmed influenza during the 2023-2024 US influenza season. METHODS: rVE was estimated using a test-negative design applied to a large, linked, real-world dataset. QIVc or QIVe recipients aged 6 months-64 years who were tested for influenza within ± 7 days of an acute respiratory or febrile illness were included. rVE was estimated using doubly robust logistic regression. Analyses were performed for the full, pediatric, adult, outpatient and high-risk populations and by influenza type. Public health impact was assessed using a compartmental influenza burden averted model. RESULTS: The analysis included 2119 QIVc-cases, 14,750 QIVc-controls, 14,559 QIVe-cases, and 75,351 QIVe-controls. QIVc was superior to QIVe in preventing test-confirmed influenza with an rVE of 19.8% (95% CI 15.7-23.8%) in the full population, and with rVEs of 19.6% (13.6-25.3%) in the pediatric population aged 6 months-17 years and 18.5% (12.1-24.5%) in adults aged 18-64 years. Consistent results were observed for all sensitivity and subgroup analyses against any influenza. If all vaccinated individuals aged 6 months-64 years in the US received QIVc over QIVe, an estimated 2,379,395 additional symptomatic illnesses would have been prevented, with proportionate reductions in related complications. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis showed superior effectiveness of QIVc over QIVe in preventing test-confirmed influenza among persons aged 6 months-64 years, and provided the first demonstration of superiority in pediatric populations from 6 months of age. A Graphical Abstract is availible for this article. Most influenza vaccines are produced in hens’ eggs. When vaccine viruses are grown in eggs, mutations may occur that promote better growth in eggs but reduce the effectiveness of the vaccine against circulating human influenza viruses. We compared the effectiveness of egg-based influenza vaccines (QIVe; egg-based quadrivalent influenza vaccine) with QIVc (cell-based quadrivalent influenza vaccine), made by growing vaccine virus in cell lines from mammals. We measured the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of these vaccines in preventing influenza illness. The rVE describes the additional protective benefit provided by one vaccine relative to another. We found that QIVc was significantly more effective in preventing influenza infection among people aged 6 months to 64 years during the 2023–2024 influenza season in the United States: the rVE was +19.8%. Therefore, of the people who would remain unprotected after vaccination with QIVe, vaccination with QIVc would have additionally protected 19.8% of this remaining population. Similar results are seen when we specifically look at either children, adults, or those with health problems that increase the risk of serious influenza complications (rVE ranging from +14.7% to +24.3%). We estimated that if all those aged 6 months to 64 years who were vaccinated during the 2023–2024 US influenza season had received QIVc instead of QIVe, an additional 2.4 million symptomatic influenza illnesses would have been prevented, along with 1.1 million outpatient visits, 14,940 hospitalizations, and 574 deaths. Our data support the benefit of QIVc over QIVe in people aged 6 months to 64 years.